I think the key for both, that is tape or scale, is to monitor general trends over time. Perhaps use a chart or just remember the values and do the graph in your head. I've fluctuated five or more pounds in a day before--I've not measured regularly but I can see differences in muscle definition from week to week and they are not always progressing in a positive direction. I began charting my weight-lifting workouts and they do not always go up in either repetitions or weight from week to week but if I graph them over a longer period of time there is a definite upward trend in effort exerted. I suspect that over weeks or months it may be the same for your weight loss. However some form of monitoring is beneficial, keeping in mind you do not want to discourage yourself and sabotage to progress you've already made. Use the monitoring to assess your diet compliance or activity and make the appropriate adjustments.

Also kind of a bummer with PCOS, if there is inflammation from a cyst acting up, my waist size can fluctuate up to 6-8 inches over the course of a few days.

For now, drawstring pants, and hoping I'm on the right track to getting this under control.

I guess there are positives and negatives to both sides of the question. Perhaps the greatest indicator would be a body fat analysis. That is ultimately what you are trying to lose, with exercise, even a small amount, you are likely to add a bit of muscle, which and throw off both 'measurements' a body fat test seems like a way around the issues that are present.