"Having carbs" does not a cheat day make. If that's your only "cheat", then keep doing what works for you. I eat between 40g and 180g of carbs a day, depending on what my activity levels were like that day or the day before or planned future activity. As you noted, carb refeeds are a technique people use.

I do not (well, no longer) have "cheat meals" or "cheat days."

A "sensible cheat day" for people that make it work for them tends to be one non-paleo meal per week, usually a big one, and usually one with a high reward feeling - e.g. pizza with friends, a night out drinking and a late night falafel, or something like that.

I've known people who have "a cheat day" that is actually just a complete binge. Enough to stall either weight loss or body recomp in its tracks.

If having "low quality" but really-fun food can fit into your lifestyle, and you're still hitting your goals, then I say go for it!

I vote for coincidence.

Day to day changes in total weight aren't likely to reflect changes in fat-mass.

This happens to me when I am overtraining or undereating for show (not on purpose, but it is a fine line).

Your body goes into some starvation, and then you eat a bunch and it says "yay, the famine is over". It starts running on high again. Note: my cheat meal was usually a steak, salad and baked potato at the Keg).

Could be a combo of things working in your favour; the excess calories, the added carbs, or even the salt if you don't use it much to cook your own meals.

i've noticed this phenomenon too. when i was yo-yoing in my high school days, i'd break a big weight loss and underweight time by bingeing, not intentionally, but you know how it happens... and i could never keep back on the weight loss train after that binge day. i would actually lose in the first few days, but about a week after over eating, my clothes wouldn't fit, i'd be gaining, and a few weeks later, more weight would hit me, as much a surprise as when weight was dropping. i don't have a healthy relationship to food: the idea of a splurge day isn't one that i can do, walk ahead and eat healthily and without guilt. i still have the woes of possible weight gain and wasted time, splurging. i've been seeking treatment, though, for overeating and a few nights ago i splurged.. the first time eating sugar, wheat, chocolate, everything... in months. and i didn't feel guilty, but powerful, like, 'yeah, i ate all of this crappy, indulgent food, but i will be fine, and i don't need to eat another bite.' using the splurge day allowed me to see why the paleo diet wasn't a restrictive platform, but Vital for my optimum health. that avoiding sugars and low quality was not for weight loss, but happiness. i read on Mark's daily apple that someone did a splurge day every 4 weeks, to tell themselves Why they are on a paleo diet. one moment of eating poorly, is not a big deal, i try to tell myself, in the scheme that i hope to be alive another 70 years, eating right!

Yes, I have noticed that mixing it up is the only thing that will bust through a plateau. Randomizing my diet due to travel and activity level: a week strict paleo w high fat, moderate protein restricted calories, followed by 1-2 carb heavy higher calorie days, then and 18 hour fast broken w protein and (being honest here) wine and I recently saw a big jump on the scale, and fit into smaller clothes. My guess is that it is analogous to the idea of muscle confusion in training. Varying macros and calorie levels keeps the body out of conservation or famine mode so it is burning fat as needed. No science to back this up, just my guess. Furthur, I'll postulate that this random pattern of food availability was what our ancestors experienced Pre-agriculture.

That happened to me when I was losing weight on Weight Watchers. I always lost more the weeks I went over my allowances. In my case, the small allowance I was given was simply not enough to nourish my larger frame, so I lost weight better on more calories. Other than that, I don't know. But I can relate.